THE FUTURE OF 5G

Nothing like a new administration to shake things up, but that is the nature of politics. The issue is will things be shaken versus stirred? (pun intended). I leave political prognostications to people far smarter than me. I remain focused on policy. 

The good thing is the overall emphasis on 5G of both the Biden and Trump administrations fundamentally stays the same but with subtle nuances. In other words, stirred.

Same as the Biden administration, the Trump administration, will continue to consider 5G rollout as a national priority. While the underlying reason to provide connectivity for all remains, there may be a stronger emphasis on winning the global chess game to remain technologically ahead, and to have such technology in the U.S. versus, say, China. You can find my thoughts on the current state of U.S.-China relationships in a prior article titled U.S.-China Telecom Relations. Also, versus technology alliances with friendly countries, there may be more of an emphasis on “Made in the U.S.” Finally, the 5G focus is likely to have more of an emphasis on national security, which is connected to the incoming administration’s focus on cybersecurity, private networks and artificial intelligence.

The rapidity of 5G rollout depends on the sector and industry. One of the 5G considerations is population density so there is an economically viable  revenue model. While there is federal support to increase broadband in rural areas (FN1), there remain cost benefit issues in ensuring affordable deployment in low-density regions.  In my opinion,  large telcos generally have difficulty in finding that revenue sweet spot which may open opportunities for smaller, less expensive and more nimble players. 

One of the other nuances between administrations is the reliance on private investment. The Trump administration seems to want a bigger private investment in national 5G considerations, with part of the rationale being that the government is slower. The cautionary red flag is whether this means less competition, as only the large telcos can invest in spectrum, or whether this is an opportunity for small and medium sized companies to help in building the 5G infrastructure and allowing for more creative bridging of the digital divide such as through CBRS.

About the author

Gary Sumihiro is the founder of Sumihiro Investments, LLC a global strategic consulting firm representing domestic and international companies.

Learn more at: www.sumihiroinvestmentsllc.com

FOOTNOTES:

FN1: Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF)